Tiger Global made early bets on two of the most watched names in artificial intelligence and self-driving in 2021, backing OpenAI and Waymo at valuations that now frame the arc of tech investing over the past four years.
The New York firm invested in OpenAI at a valuation below $16 billion and in Waymo at $39 billion, according to a person familiar with the deals. The timing places Tiger’s moves at the height of the venture capital surge, before the 2022 market correction and the renewed AI rally.
“Tiger first invested in OpenAI in 2021 at a valuation of less than $16 billion and in Waymo that same year at $39 billion.”
Why These 2021 Bets Matter Now
The stakes of those entries have grown. OpenAI’s later secondary sales valued the company near $80–90 billion by late 2023 and early 2024, according to public reports, reflecting soaring demand for generative AI. That marks a sizable paper gain for early backers who did not sell.
Waymo’s path has been slower but steadier. Alphabet’s self-driving unit expanded paid robotaxi operations in Phoenix and San Francisco, began service in Los Angeles, and has logged millions of autonomous miles. Yet investor marks for Waymo have moved up and down with shifting sentiment on commercialization timelines.
From Peak Venture to AI Resurgence
In 2021, venture funds raised record sums and deployed capital aggressively into late-stage rounds. That surge cooled in 2022 as rates rose and tech valuations fell. Many crossover funds wrote down holdings. Then, generative AI reignited deal flow and valuations in 2023.
Tiger Global was central to the 2020–2021 boom, writing rapid-fire checks into growth rounds. The OpenAI and Waymo positions capture both sides of the current market: high-growth AI software and capital-intensive autonomy.
The Numbers at a Glance
- OpenAI entry: under $16 billion valuation in 2021.
- Waymo entry: $39 billion valuation in 2021.
- Reported OpenAI valuation in 2023–2024 secondary sales: roughly $80–90 billion.
Industry Impact and What’s Changed
OpenAI’s rise reshaped priorities across Big Tech and startups. Companies scrambled to build or license models, hire AI researchers, and rethink cloud spending. For investors, the company became a benchmark for pricing private AI assets. Early entries, like Tiger’s, signaled conviction in foundation models before the ChatGPT surge.
Waymo’s progress has been more operational. The company focused on safety, geographic expansion, and cost per mile. It honed a services model rather than consumer car sales. The path still requires heavy capital, partnerships with cities, and patient timelines.
What It Means for Investors
For Tiger’s limited partners, the OpenAI stake could offset losses from other 2021-era positions, depending on fund structure and liquidity events. Many AI winners remain private, limiting realized gains. Secondary sales offer partial exits but can be small relative to total exposure.
Waymo shows the other challenge: even strong technical progress can take years to convert into cash returns. Pricing a private autonomy leader remains difficult without frequent funding rounds or clear profitability metrics.
Risks, Rewards, and the Road Ahead
Generative AI spending is rising, but costs for computing, data, and safety controls are rising too. Competitive pressure from tech giants and open-source models is intensifying. Execution will determine whether today’s valuations hold.
Autonomous driving continues to advance, yet regulatory scrutiny and public trust shape the rollout. Operational breadth, incident responses, and partnerships with city agencies will influence scale and unit economics.
Expert Views and Market Signals
Analysts say early entries into category leaders help smooth portfolio returns across cycles. Still, timing matters. 2021 valuations in many sectors proved high. Exceptions—like the strongest AI platforms—now anchor fund narratives.
Investors are watching for more secondary transactions, new funding rounds, and revenue disclosures. Any shift in model costs, licensing strategies, or safety records could move private marks sharply.
Early positions in OpenAI and Waymo highlight how one firm straddled two defining bets in technology: software that writes and tools, and cars that drive themselves. The next phase hinges on revenue scale, costs, and policy. For now, these stakes show the rewards and risks of acting early—and sticking around long enough to find out what pays.
